Analysis of the 1999-2000 highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) epidemic in the main poultry-production area in northern Italy

We evaluated the effects of risk factors and control policies following the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic that struck northern Italy’s poultry industry in the winter of 1999 – 2000. The epidemic was caused by a type-A influenza virus of the H7N1 subtype, that originated from a low-pathogenic AI virus which spread among poultry farms in northeastern Italy in 1999 and eventually became virulent by mutation. Most infected premises (IP) were located in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto (382 out of 413, 92.5%), and the eradication measures provided for in the European legislation were enforced. In Veneto, where flock density was highest, infection-control was also accomplished by means of depopulation of susceptible flocks through a ban on restocking and pre-emptive slaughter of flocks that were in the vicinities of or that had dangerous contacts with IPs. In Lombardy, such control measures were applied to a lesser extent. Infection incidence rate (IR) was 2.6 cases per 1000 flocks per day in Lombardy and 1.1 in Veneto. After the implementation of infection-control measures, the at-risk population, the percentage of flocks 1.5 km from IPs, and the HPAI-IR underwent a greater reduction in Veneto than in Lombardy. Although the proximity (1.5 km) to IPs in the temporal risk window (TRW) was a major risk factor for HPAI at the individual flock level, its effect at the population level (population-attributable fraction) did not exceed 31.3%. Viral transmission therefore also occurred among relatively distant flocks. Turkey flocks were characterised by greater IR of HPAI compared with other bird species such as layer hens, broilers, gamebirds, and waterfowl, even when located at distances > 1.5 km from IPs. In Lombardy, IR for species other than turkeys was also relatively high.