OBJECTIVE: to investigate age-period-cohort effects on temporal trend of type 1 diabetes in age 0-14 years in Italian registries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This report is based on 5180 incident cases in the period 1990-2003. Multilevel (random intercept) Poisson regression models have been used to model the effects of sex, age, calendar time and birth cohorts on temporal trends taking into account the registry-level variance component. RESULTS: The incidence rate was 12.26 per 100,000 person-year, significantly higher in boys (13.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 12.66-13.62) than in girls (11.35; CI: 10.90-11.82). Large geographical variations in incidence within Italy were evident, being highest in Sardinia, intermediate in Central-Southern Italy, and high in Northern Italy, particularly in the Trento Province, where an incidence rate of 18.67/100,000 was registered. An increasing temporal trend was evident (2.94% per year, CI 2.22-3.67). With respect to the calendar period 1990-92, the incidence rates increased linearly, being 15%, 27%, 35% and 40% higher in the following time periods (p for trend <0.001). With respect to the birth cohort 1987-1993, the incidence rate ratio increased approximately linearly from 0.63 (CI 0.54-0.73) in the cohort 1975-81 to 1.38 (CI 1.06-1.80) in the cohort 1999-2003. The best model, however, was the one with sex, age and a linear time trend (drift). CONCLUSIONS: Large geographical variations and an increasing temporal trend are evident in Italy. Age period-cohort analysis shows that the variation over time has a linear component that cannot be ascribed to either the calendar period or the birth cohort.

Age-period-cohort analysis of 1990-2003 incidence time trends of childhood diabetes in Italy: the RIDI study.

BRUNO, Graziella;MAULE, MILENA MARIA;MERLETTI, Franco;CERUTTI, Franco;
2010

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: to investigate age-period-cohort effects on temporal trend of type 1 diabetes in age 0-14 years in Italian registries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This report is based on 5180 incident cases in the period 1990-2003. Multilevel (random intercept) Poisson regression models have been used to model the effects of sex, age, calendar time and birth cohorts on temporal trends taking into account the registry-level variance component. RESULTS: The incidence rate was 12.26 per 100,000 person-year, significantly higher in boys (13.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 12.66-13.62) than in girls (11.35; CI: 10.90-11.82). Large geographical variations in incidence within Italy were evident, being highest in Sardinia, intermediate in Central-Southern Italy, and high in Northern Italy, particularly in the Trento Province, where an incidence rate of 18.67/100,000 was registered. An increasing temporal trend was evident (2.94% per year, CI 2.22-3.67). With respect to the calendar period 1990-92, the incidence rates increased linearly, being 15%, 27%, 35% and 40% higher in the following time periods (p for trend <0.001). With respect to the birth cohort 1987-1993, the incidence rate ratio increased approximately linearly from 0.63 (CI 0.54-0.73) in the cohort 1975-81 to 1.38 (CI 1.06-1.80) in the cohort 1999-2003. The best model, however, was the one with sex, age and a linear time trend (drift). CONCLUSIONS: Large geographical variations and an increasing temporal trend are evident in Italy. Age period-cohort analysis shows that the variation over time has a linear component that cannot be ascribed to either the calendar period or the birth cohort.
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http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/content/59/9/2281.full.pdf+html
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2927951/pdf/zdb2281.pdf
Bruno G; Maule M; Merletti F; Novelli G; Falorni A; Iannilli A; Iughetti L; Altobelli E; d'Annunzio G; Piffer S; Pozzilli P; Iafusco D; Songini M; Roncarolo F; Toni S; Carle F; Cherubini V; RIDI Study Group including Novelli G; Cerutti F; Franchini S; Bianchi L; Lorini R; Minuto N; Sacco S; Ramondetti F; Predieri B; Reali S; Medici A; Biagioni M; Gesuita R; Santeusanio F; De Giorgi G; Visalli N; Bizzarri C; Chiarelli F; Tumini S; Prisco F; Confetto S; Frongia P; Marinaro A
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2318/102170
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