Keynes on economic method. A Reassessment on his debate with Tinbergen and other econometricians, 1938-1943

This paper reconstructs Keynes's reflections on the issue of the role of econometyrics in economic discourse in a time perspective longer than is usually considered in the literature. We analyse the Keynes-Tinbergen debate in the period 1938-1940 and the exchange between Keynes and some economtricians in the period 1939-41. The reconstruction shows that there is no evidence for regarding Keynes as a critic and a opponent of econometric method per se. What Keynes opposed were the attempts at statistical inference without any prior effort at ascertain the suitability of the economic material for making such inferences.