The Impact of Degree Duration on Higher Education Participation: Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Experiment

This paper investigates the effects on enrolment, retention rate and on-time graduation of a nationwide Bologna Process reform introduced in Italy to establish a three-year BA degree course, followed by an optional second-tier degree of two years, in place of single-tier degrees with a duration of four or five years. The analysis exploits an exogenous delay of treatment in the initial adoption of the reform and the unique availability of microdata that cover the universe of the departments. We estimate that the reform has boosted first-year enrolments by 14.5-17.3 percentage points, compared to a counterfactual status of no reform. This enrolment shift is due to participation gains rather than substitution effects, and it is likely to persist in the longer term. Moreover, no trade-off between increased participation and deteriorated retention and on-time graduation emerges.