The false consensus effect: A trigger of radicalization in locally unwanted land uses conflicts?

We tackled the conflicts on locally unwanted land uses (LULU) focusing on the false consensus effect (FCE). Through a secondary analysis of data from a representative sample of residents in the district area of Turin, Italy, where a high-speed railway (HSR) should be sited (N = 1785), we tested whether the FCE mediates the relationship between perceived threat to the place and mobilization against the HRS. Participants tended to overestimate the number of people holding their same opinion. Among the participants against the HSR (n = 305), the tendency to incur in the FCE was higher for who perceived the project as a threat to the place. Moreover, the perception of an alleged consensus around one’s own opinion mobilized them to defend their position. Our study suggested that standard approaches to LULU conflicts may benefit from the use of socio-cognitive variables. Strengths and limitations of the study are discussed.