Modelling the pollen season start in Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa

Hazel (Corylus avellana L.) and black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn.) are important sources of airborne pollen and represent an allergen threat during the flowering period. Researches on airborne pollen concentrations in both species are useful in allergology, as well as for fruit production for hazel. The aims of the present study were: (1) to investigate the relationships between environmental conditions and the airborne pollen concentration of hazel and black alder during the flowering period by correlation and multiple regression analysis and (2) to predict the pollen season start (PSS) by using a sequential model, in order to obtain a helpful tool in allergology and hazel cultivation. In this study, the applied method defines the pollen season as the period in which 90 % of the total season’s catch occurred, using a data set of 18 years (1996–2014). The relationships between daily meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) during the 14-day period that precedes the PSS and the PSS of hazel and black alder (day of the year) were investigated. The results showed that mean temperature and the number of rainy days before the PSS are the main factors influencing PSS for both taxa. Moreover, the chilling and heat needed to break dormancy were estimated in order to predict the PSS of both species. Different years and different thresholds of temperature and chill days were used to calibrate and validate the model