Direct and indirect effects of weather variability in a specialist butterfly

1. Climate change poses serious threats to the long-term persistence of many animal and plant populations. Species having specific niche requirements, or characterised by highly co-evolved interactions, will face the greatest challenges. An example is represented by Maculinea alcon (Denis & Schiffermüller), a monophagous and univoltine butterfly species, which lays eggs only on larval host plants which occur inparticular phenological conditions. 2. The present 2-year study focused on two M. alcon populations, both located at the southern boundaries of the species, but facing different climatic conditions (360 m, low altitude versus 860 m, high altitude). Population vulnerability with respect to direct and indirect effects of climate change was analysed, focusing on two important aspects of butterfly biology, i.e. the flight activity of adults and the degree of synchrony in the larval plant–insect interactions. 3. It was observed that, when positive temperature anomalies are reached, the temperature can exert detrimental effects on adults’ activity. At a low altitude, in a hotter than usual year, a temperature threshold was recorded (around 32 ∘C), above which the activity of butterflies is inhibited. In contrast, at a high altitude, temperature increases maintain the opportunity to enhance butterfly activity. Altitudinal differences were also observed in the phenology of the two interacting species, which generate stronger asynchrony at low altitudes. 4. High- and low-altitude populations represent different conservation units: a global increase in temperature would pose a serious threat to the lowland populations, whereas high-altitude populations would gain a greater role in assuring the persistence of M. alcon at its southern boundaries.