Analysis of the incidence of poxvirus on the dynamics between red and grey squirrels

A model for the interactions of the invasive grey squirrel species as asymptomatic carriers of the poxvirus with the native red squirrel is presented and analyzed. Equilibria of the dynamical system are assessed, and their sensitivity in terms of the ecosystem parameters is investigated through numerical simulations. The findings are in line with both field and theoretical research. The results indicate that mainly the reproduction rate of the alien population should be drastically reduced to repel the invasion, and to achieve disease eradication, actions must be performed to reduce the intraspecific transmission rate; also, the native species mortality plays a role: if grey squirrels are controlled, increasing it may help in the red squirrel preservation, while the invaders vanish; on the contrary, decreasing it in favorable situations, the coexistence of the two species may occur. Preservation or restoration of the native red squirrel requires removal of the grey squirrels or keeping them at low values. Wildlife managers should exert a constant effort to achieve a harsh reduction of the grey squirrel growth rate and to protect the remnant red squirrel population.