Individual participant data pooled-analysis of risk factors for recurrence after neoadjuvant radiotherapy and transanal local excision of rectal cancer: the PARTTLE study

Background An organ-preserving strategy may be a valid alternative in the treatment of selected patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant radiotherapy. Preoperative assessment of the risk for tumor recurrence is a key component of surgical planning. The aim of the present study was to increase the current knowledge on the risk factors for tumor recurrence. Methods The present study included individual participant data of published studies on rectal cancer surgery. The literature was reviewed according to according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data checklist (PRISMA-IPD) guidelines. Series of patients, whose data were collected prospectively, having neoadjuvant radiotherapy followed by transanal local excision for rectal cancer were reviewed. Three independent series of univariate/multivariate binary logistic regression models were estimated for the risk of local, systemic and overall recurrence, respectively. Results We identified 15 studies, and 7 centers provided individual data on 517 patients. The multivariate analysis showed higher local and overall recurrences for ypT3 stage (OR 4.79; 95% CI 2.25–10.16 and OR 6.43 95% CI 3.33–12.42), tumor size after radiotherapy > 10 mm (OR 5.86 95% CI 2.33–14.74 and OR 3.14 95% CI 1.68–5.87), and lack of combined chemotherapy (OR 3.68 95% CI 1.78–7.62 and OR 2.09 95% CI 1.10–3.97), while ypT3 was the only factor correlated with systemic recurrence (OR 5.93). The analysis of survival curves shows that the overall survival is associated with ypT and not with cT. Conclusions Local excision should be offered with caution after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy to selected patients with rectal cancers, who achieved a good response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.