Three roads to populism? An Italian field study on the 2019 European election

Objectives. We predicted populist orientation and vote for two populist parties, the Five Star Movement (FSM) and the League, in the 2019 European election by focusing on perceived economic threat, perceived cultural threat, dissatisfaction with representative democracy, and on first-order interactions. Method. We surveyed a quota sample of the Italian adult general population (N = 1,504) and tested a latent moderated structural equations model aimed at predicting participants’ populist vote and populist orientation. Results. Perceived cultural threat and dissatisfaction with democracy were positively associated with populist orientation. Dissatisfaction with democracy was positively associated with votes for the FSM, while perceived cultural threat was positively associated with votes for the League. Perceived economic threat was negatively associated with votes for the League. Conclusion. Populist orientation and populist vote share just some predictors, and are associated with main effects only, but not with interactions between perceived cultural, economic, and political variables.