Performance progression of elite jumpers: Early performances do not predict later success

This study aimed (a) to estimate the transition rate for top 50 ranked track and field jumpers, (b) to compare the performance progression of top 50 ranked senior jumpers (top50 senior) to those who failed to be top 50 ranked in the senior category despite being top 50 ranked in the under 18 category (only U18), and (c) to verify whether relative age effect may at least partially explain the differences in the two above-mentioned subgroups. The career performance trajectories of 5981 athletes (2837 females) competing in jump events from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the World Athletics database. The all-time top 50 ranked athletes for each age from 16 years to senior category were identified. Performance progression characteristics were compared using linear mixed-effects model. Only 8% of males and 16% of females top 50 ranked at the age of 16 years managed to be included among the top50 senior. Only U18subgroup made the first appearance in the database (at 15-16 years) and reached the peak performance (at 20 years) earlier than top50 senior (17-18 and 26-27 years, respectively). The relative age effect was largely present in Only U18 but not in top50 senior subgroups. Most of the early-successful U18 world-class jumpers did not manage to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood since they experienced a plateau in performance from 20 years of age. Conversely, top 50 ranked senior jumpers continued to produce consistent performance improvement up to 26-27 years of age.