Evaluation of the ability of the Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) compared to other risk stratification methods to predict the response to an extended endocrine therapy in breast cancer patients

Purpose Extension of adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) reduces the risk of recurrence in women diagnosed with ER-positive breast cancers, but a significant benefit is unlikely to happen to all individual patients. This study is aimed at evaluating the ability of different clinical late distant recurrence (LDR) risk stratification methods and in particular the clinical treatment score at 5 years (CTS5) to predict the response to extended adjuvant ET. Methods 783 patients diagnosed with ER+ BC between 1988 and 2014 at Umberto I Hospital of Turin, of which 180 received an extended adjuvant ET, were retrospectively selected. They were stratified according to pT, pN, disease stage, tumor grade, Ki67 level, progesterone receptor status and CTS5. The primary endpoint was LDR rate. LDR rates according to ET duration were confronted in each subgroup. Result The median duration of extended ET was 7 years (6–10). Median follow-up from diagnosis was 9 years (6–26). Retrospective risk stratification according to tumor size, nodal status, disease stage, tumor grade, Ki67 level, and progesterone receptor status did not appear to be able to predict the response to extended ET. In the CTS5 high-risk subgroup instead, the risk of developing an LDR was significantly lower in the patients who underwent extended ET compared to standard ET (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.15–0.91), while no significant benefit was demonstrated for low and intermediate-risk patients. Conclusions Risk stratification according to CTS5 appeared to be predictive of the response to extended endocrine therapy in our population of real-life pre and postmenopausal patients.