Environmental variation drives continental-scale synchrony of European beech reproduction

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance-decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation.