An agent-based simulation of retailers’ ecological behavior in central urban areas. The case study of Turin

The paper provides an empirical analysis of urban freight transport in the city center of Turin through the use of Agent-based Modelling. The aim is to explore to what extent the policies fostered by Turin’s municipality within the European project NOVELOG (New Cooperative Business Models and Guidance for Sustainable City Logistics) could trigger more ecological behaviors in retailers during the provision’s process. The model is based on the idea that ecological behavior depends both on economic and social features, such as imitative component and service’s quality perceived and individual environmental sensitivity. The agents are informed through real data provided by the City of Turin. A price-based policy simulates the effect of an hypothetical NOVELOG monetary incentive, while a motivation-based policy would exploit the network effect. The results show that the policies improve the timing of the diffusion of virtuous behaviors, reducing the total production of pollutant emissions. The most effective results are given by strong monetary incentives for purchasing an ecological vehicle within the own-account option, or by the combination of price and motivation policies for the shift to a third-party option.