Predictive validity of an indicator of exposure to unfavorable ergonomic working conditions on work-related musculoskeletal disorders

Researchers have long documented a significant association between exposure to unfavorable working conditions and poorer occupational health and safety. However, measures of occupational exposures are often lacking from national and international surveys. Drawing on research on job-exposures matrices (JEMs) and exploiting the Italian O*NET, we construct a new indicator of exposure to ergonomic unfavorable conditions at work (Ergo-Index) and we test its predictive power on the incidence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Exploiting 5-years of administrative archives of the Italian National Workers Compensation Institute and running a set of negative binomial regression models, we find a very strong association between the Ergo-Index and the incidence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSD). Compared to the least exposed category (Ergo-Index < p25), the risk of WRMSD was 60–70 times higher in the highest exposure group (Ergo-Index > p75) for notified WRMSD, and almost 2...