: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a relevant disease burden in cirrhotic patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of simple non-invasive tests (NITs) (AAR, APRI, BARD, FIB-4) for the stratification of HCC risk development in a cohort of 122 consecutive cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD. Over a median follow up of 5.9 (3.2-9.3) years, 13 (10.7%) developed HCC. Only FIB-4 was associated with HCC risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.58, p = 0.027). After evaluating different established FIB-4 cut-offs, the lowest cut-off of 1.45 allowed the ruling out of a greater number of patients with a minimal risk of HCC than the 1.3 cut-off (23 vs. 18 patients). Conversely, the cumulative incidence of HCC using the highest cut-off of 3.25 (rule in) was distinctly higher than the 2.67 cut-off (19.4% vs. 13.3%). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, these cut-offs were independently associated with HCC after adjusting for sex, BMI and T2DM (HR = 6.40, 95% CI 1.71-24.00, p = 0.006). In conclusion, FIB-4 values of <1.3 and >3.25 could allow for the optimal stratification of long-term HCC risk in cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD.

Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Armandi, Angelo
Co-first
;
Caviglia, Gian Paolo
Co-first
;
Abdulle, Amina;Rosso, Chiara;Gjini, Kamela;Castelnuovo, Gabriele;Guariglia, Marta;Perez Diaz Del Campo, Nuria;D'Amato, Daphne;Ribaldone, Davide Giuseppe;Saracco, Giorgio Maria;Bugianesi, Elisabetta
2023-01-01

Abstract

: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a relevant disease burden in cirrhotic patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of simple non-invasive tests (NITs) (AAR, APRI, BARD, FIB-4) for the stratification of HCC risk development in a cohort of 122 consecutive cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD. Over a median follow up of 5.9 (3.2-9.3) years, 13 (10.7%) developed HCC. Only FIB-4 was associated with HCC risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.58, p = 0.027). After evaluating different established FIB-4 cut-offs, the lowest cut-off of 1.45 allowed the ruling out of a greater number of patients with a minimal risk of HCC than the 1.3 cut-off (23 vs. 18 patients). Conversely, the cumulative incidence of HCC using the highest cut-off of 3.25 (rule in) was distinctly higher than the 2.67 cut-off (19.4% vs. 13.3%). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, these cut-offs were independently associated with HCC after adjusting for sex, BMI and T2DM (HR = 6.40, 95% CI 1.71-24.00, p = 0.006). In conclusion, FIB-4 values of <1.3 and >3.25 could allow for the optimal stratification of long-term HCC risk in cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD.
2023
15
6
1659
1667
BARD score; FIB-4 score; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cirrhosis; metabolic syndrome; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; non-invasive tests; type 2 diabetes
Armandi, Angelo; Caviglia, Gian Paolo; Abdulle, Amina; Rosso, Chiara; Gjini, Kamela; Castelnuovo, Gabriele; Guariglia, Marta; Perez Diaz Del Campo, Nu...espandi
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2318/1897515
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