Individual reproductive success in Norway spruce natural populations depends on growth rate, age and sensitivity to temperature

Quantifying the individual reproductive success and understanding its determinants is a central issue in evolutionary research for the major consequences that the transmission of genetic variation from parents to offspring has on the adaptive potential of populations. Here, we propose to distil the myriad of information embedded in tree-ring time series into a set of tree-ring-based phenotypic traits to be investigated as potential drivers of reproductive success in forest trees. By using a cross-disciplinary approach that combines parentage analysis and a thorough dendrophenotypic characterisation of putative parents, we assessed sex-specific relationships between such dendrophenotypic traits (i.e., age, growth rate and parameters describing sensitivity to climate and to extreme climatic events) and reproductive success in Norway spruce. We applied a full probability method for reconstructing parent–offspring relationships between 604 seedlings and 518 adult trees sampled within five ...