The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area*

We estimate a monthly interacted-VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the state of the average outlook for the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to an uncertainty shock, the peak decrease in industrial production and inflation is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build an assessment of the role of uncertainty for a path of innovations consistent with the increase in the observed VSTOXX measure of uncertainty since the outset of the COVID-19 epidemics in February and March 2020. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of around 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels roughly in June 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations for the economic outlook. We conduct simulations that quantify the potential benefit of recovered confidence in reducing the uncertainty-induced losses associated with a possible third wave of the pandemic.