Evapotranspiration of an abandoned grassland in the Italian Alps: Modeling the impact of shrub encroachment

This study analyzes the effect of shrub encroachment on actual evapotranspiration (ETa), a still poorly studied phenomenon in the Alps. The effect of shrub encroachment is investigated on an Alpine grassland in Western Italy using both data and a soil hydrological model (Hydrus 1D), which is used to model three different land covers: grassland, shrubland, and a mixture of the two land covers with a novel double vegetation approach recently introduced. Four growing seasons of eddy covariance measurements are used as an approximate reference for the interpretation and consistency of the model outputs. Also, the impact of meteorological interannual variability and of different environmental conditions on both modeled and measured evapotranspiration is analyzed. The modeling results show that the model is able to capture the inter -annual variability of ETa. The double vegetation approach suggests that the percentage of total transpiration flux assigned to the shrubland is between 20 and 60 %. Single -vegetation simulations show that shrubs lead to an enhancement of ETa equal to + 27.1 %, +26.0 %, +26.8 %, and + 23.9 % (range 2014 - 2017) compared to grassland, which could lead to an alteration of the hydrological cycle. Moreover, chambers measurements of shrubs transpiration show a good agreement with the eddy covariance measurement, suggesting that the ecosystem ' s behavior is already close to a shrubland, which yields an increased ETa if compared to grassland. The evaporative index from the modeled shrubland is higher (range +24 - 27 %) than the case of a modeled grassland. Finally, ETa and the evaporative fraction (EF) are in the energy -limited regime in most cases. This result was obtained from the analysis of the relationship between ETa (and EF) and either meteorological variables or soil water content including the simulated one in the 0 - 100 cm horizon. The following analysis, more focused on micrometeorological variables, namely vapor pressure deficit, net radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and ground heat flux, indicates that ETa is mostly affected by the vapor pressure deficit.