The Political Effects of (Mis)Perceived Immigration

Several studies document that exposure to actual immigration affects political outcomes. This paper examines, instead, the influence of \textit{expected} immigration, using data from local elections in Italy. We develop an index of potential exposure to pre-electoral sea arrivals that varies over time and space depending on immigrants’ nationality. We find that such potential exposure causes a decrease in turnout and increases protest votes, shifting valid votes towards extreme-right parties. Support for populist and anti-immigration parties increased in highly exposed municipalities, where voters believed the new inflow of refugees would increase the local stock of immigrants. However, Twitter data show that these expectations do not reflect actual immigration trends; immigration salience rises mainly during the election period, while most arrivals occur months later. This suggests that, around elections, informal media can bias people’s expectations and, consequently, influence voting behavior.