Combination of aN3LO PDFs and implications for Higgs production cross-sections at the LHC

Abstract We discuss how the two existing approximate N3LO (aN3LO) sets of parton distributions (PDFs) from the MSHT20 and NNPDF4.0 series can be combined for LHC phenomenology, both in the pure QCD case and for the QCD ⊗ QED sets that include the photon PDF. Using the resulting combinations, we present predictions for the total inclusive cross-section for Higgs production in gluon fusion, vector boson fusion, and associated production at the LHC with \sqrt{s}=13.6 TeV (Run 3). For the gluon fusion and vector boson fusion channels, the corrections that arise when using correctly matched aN3LO PDFs with N3LO cross section calculations, compared to using NNLO PDFs, are significant, in many cases larger than the PDF uncertainty, and generally larger than the differences between the two aN 3 LO PDF sets entering the combination. The combined aN3LO PDF sets, MSHT20xNNPDF40_an3lo and MSHT20xNNPDF40_an3lo_qed, are made publicly available in the LHAPDF format and can be readily used for LHC phenomenology.