Impact of climate and land use change on the distribution of orchids in Estonia

Habitat loss and climate change are driving global declines in terrestrial orchid populations. In Europe, predicted northward range shifts suggest that northern regions may serve as future refugia. Estonia— one of northern Europe’s most orchid-rich countries—offers a valuable case study for assessing climate change impact on orchids. Using species distribution models (SDMs), we projected range changes for 31 orchid species under moderate (SSP245) and high-emission (SSP585) scenarios, integrating land use change projections through the 21st century. Currently, the western islands and coastal areas host the highest orchid diversity, forming a hotspot for calcicole tuberous species that grow preferentially in open and semi-open habitats. Under both scenarios, many of these species are expected to shift eastward. However, significant losses in orchid richness are predicted as early as 2040, severely impacting these western orchid hotspots and large parts of central and eastern Estonia, wit...