A tale of two regions: Cyclical human-climate interactions in the South Levant from the Chalcolithic to the Iron Age (6500–2200 BP)

This paper investigates long-term trends in human population and their relationship with climate in two sub-regions of the South Levant (here labelled Samaria and Judah) from the Chalcolithic to the end of Iron Age III (6500-2200 cal yr BP). We aim to reconstruct demographic fluctuations and the sub-regional level, evaluate possible cycles of climate-population relations, to understand if different scales of analyses can reveal more nuanced population variations than what is already known for the whole South Levant, and to tackle a current debate on the Iron Age II dynamics in the region. To do so, we employ a multi-proxy approach with a carefully crafted dataset composed of radiocarbon dates, archaeological sites from published surveys and excavations, and well-known paleoclimate proxies (n = 4), which were analysed through a suite of mature statistical and quantitative techniques. More specifically, we employed probabilistic approaches, entailing SPDs generation, Aoristic techniques, Monte Carlo simulations, and moving-window techniques to answer questions of long-term population changes and their relation to climate. Our results show that a multi-scalar approach can reveal interesting patterns that add significant details to regional reconstructions, with the two regions following similar patterns but each dependent on the geographical, socio-political, and economic context of the area in each period. We highlighted cycles of climate-population nexus, evidence of societal resilience and population overshoot, and larger climatic impact on population in desert fringe areas, although maintaining that climate alone cannot be taken as the sole explanatory factor for population fluctuations. We also provided a more nuanced interpretation of the Iron Age II dynamics beyond the simple juxtaposition of desolation and prosperity related to the Assyrian domination, which can now be evaluated without the risk of misinterpretations due to the partial use of just archaeological excavation data.