Immigration, place, and the right: Explaining support for the radical right in Italy during 2022 Italian National Elections

In recent years, academic research and public debate have increasingly focused on the relationship between immigration and support for populist radical right-wing parties (PRRPs). This study examines the 2022 Italian National Elections to assess whether the presence of immigrants at municipal (n = 7890) and sub-municipal levels (n = 7823, across seven major cities) influences electoral support for PRRPs, through the analytical lens of threat and contact theories. Employing spatial autoregressive models (SARs), the analysis challenges the assumption that immigration necessarily boosts right-wing support. Findings reveal no significant association – or even negative correlations – between immigrant presence and support for the Lega and Fratelli d'Italia across most of the country, particularly in urban areas, where results align more closely with the expectations of contact theory. However, a notable exception emerges in Southern Italy, where higher shares of immigrants are positively associated with increased support for Fratelli d'Italia, suggesting the persistence of localized threat dynamics. The study also highlights the central role of socio-demographic variables – particularly education and employment – in shaping political preferences.