In this study, the performance of a number of well-known statistical and stochastic models is analyzed when applied to forecasting returns and volatility in some financial markets. A new affine jump-diffusion model is also introduced and it is showed that this model achieves better results than existing ones when used to forecast volatility. The bases for developing the new model are some results showing that jumps introduced both in the return and volatility process play an important role in forecasting volatility, particularly in highly volatile markets, such as emerging equity markets.
Approaches to forecasting volatility: models and their performances for emerging equity markets
UBERTI, Mariacristina
2006-01-01
Abstract
In this study, the performance of a number of well-known statistical and stochastic models is analyzed when applied to forecasting returns and volatility in some financial markets. A new affine jump-diffusion model is also introduced and it is showed that this model achieves better results than existing ones when used to forecast volatility. The bases for developing the new model are some results showing that jumps introduced both in the return and volatility process play an important role in forecasting volatility, particularly in highly volatile markets, such as emerging equity markets.File in questo prodotto:
File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
Pezzo-Uberti-Chaos Solitons and Fractals 29(2006) 556-565.pdf
Accesso riservato
Tipo di file:
POSTPRINT (VERSIONE FINALE DELL’AUTORE)
Dimensione
153.32 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
153.32 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri Richiedi una copia |
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.