In epidemiology, measures for prophilaxis of infectious diseases are taken often using mathematical methods and statistical tools to evaluate possible future scenarios of the evolution of transmissible diseases. Here we present two models for TB transitions among different stages of the disease. We analyze them assuming to have a large basin of susceptible individuals available. The models account for immigration and demographic effects. A flow of infected members into the population is assumed. Part of it is made by a specified fraction is drug-sensitive latent individuals, while the other part consists of drug-resistant latent individuals. Our aim is the description and analysis of all the possible ways the infected individuals move. In particular, from the classes of latent to infectious, and possibly back upon successful treatment, or toward acute stages of the disease for drug resistant cases due to improper, incomplete or ineffective healing measures. Some conditions for the eradication of the disease are extracted from analytical considerations and simulation results and might be useful for epidemiological implementations.

Drug resistant impact on tuberculosis transmission

VENTURINO, Ezio
2008-01-01

Abstract

In epidemiology, measures for prophilaxis of infectious diseases are taken often using mathematical methods and statistical tools to evaluate possible future scenarios of the evolution of transmissible diseases. Here we present two models for TB transitions among different stages of the disease. We analyze them assuming to have a large basin of susceptible individuals available. The models account for immigration and demographic effects. A flow of infected members into the population is assumed. Part of it is made by a specified fraction is drug-sensitive latent individuals, while the other part consists of drug-resistant latent individuals. Our aim is the description and analysis of all the possible ways the infected individuals move. In particular, from the classes of latent to infectious, and possibly back upon successful treatment, or toward acute stages of the disease for drug resistant cases due to improper, incomplete or ineffective healing measures. Some conditions for the eradication of the disease are extracted from analytical considerations and simulation results and might be useful for epidemiological implementations.
2008
5
85
95
Drug resistant; transmissible disease; tuberculosis.
S. Martorano Raimundo; E. Venturino
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2318/42368
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