The striking result obtained by the centre right (which was expected to lose many more votes than it did) and the narrow victory of the centre left (which was expected to win easily) calls for close investigation. In all mediated democracies, including Italy, communication has become a crucial factor and it certainly was in 2006. Exactly as in 2001, there was an early favourite coalition which, during the two years prior to the election had: a) received growing support at each local and European election; b) retained a lead in the polls, and c) been crowned winner by journalists who played a strategic role by representing each leader as front-runner or likely loser. However, things started to change during the final weeks before the vote so that, helped by what was once again a highly dramatic campaign of mobilisation (Mannheimer, 2001), the coalition that was supposed to have no chance of success came much closer to victory than had been expected.1 Of course, there are many differences between the two campaigns, not least the difference in electoral laws (which meant that the gap between the two coalitions in 2001 was made greater by the proportional arena where, as is well-known, the parties of the centre right performed much better than in the majoritarian arena). But repetition of the earlier scenario is interesting. And even if at present it is impossible to tell whether this is mere coincidence or whether it indicates the emergence of a more deeply-seated pattern, the dynamic that it reveals is puzzling and worth exploring. With this as the point of departure, I will investigate three issues: first, the problem of predicted victories and the relationship between the rationale of the permanent campaign, and the hyper-dramatic communication strategies that mobilise voters during the final days before voting. Second, I will discuss the very different styles of campaigning of Prodi and Berlusconi and try to highlight the more general lessons that can be learned from their experience. Finally, I will explore the role of political journalists, highlighting the elements of continuity and discontinuity that emerge from comparison of the 2006 and the 2001 election campaigns.
"And the winner is…": Competing for votes in the print and broadcast media
RONCAROLO, Franca
2008-01-01
Abstract
The striking result obtained by the centre right (which was expected to lose many more votes than it did) and the narrow victory of the centre left (which was expected to win easily) calls for close investigation. In all mediated democracies, including Italy, communication has become a crucial factor and it certainly was in 2006. Exactly as in 2001, there was an early favourite coalition which, during the two years prior to the election had: a) received growing support at each local and European election; b) retained a lead in the polls, and c) been crowned winner by journalists who played a strategic role by representing each leader as front-runner or likely loser. However, things started to change during the final weeks before the vote so that, helped by what was once again a highly dramatic campaign of mobilisation (Mannheimer, 2001), the coalition that was supposed to have no chance of success came much closer to victory than had been expected.1 Of course, there are many differences between the two campaigns, not least the difference in electoral laws (which meant that the gap between the two coalitions in 2001 was made greater by the proportional arena where, as is well-known, the parties of the centre right performed much better than in the majoritarian arena). But repetition of the earlier scenario is interesting. And even if at present it is impossible to tell whether this is mere coincidence or whether it indicates the emergence of a more deeply-seated pattern, the dynamic that it reveals is puzzling and worth exploring. With this as the point of departure, I will investigate three issues: first, the problem of predicted victories and the relationship between the rationale of the permanent campaign, and the hyper-dramatic communication strategies that mobilise voters during the final days before voting. Second, I will discuss the very different styles of campaigning of Prodi and Berlusconi and try to highlight the more general lessons that can be learned from their experience. Finally, I will explore the role of political journalists, highlighting the elements of continuity and discontinuity that emerge from comparison of the 2006 and the 2001 election campaigns.
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