Consider a standard Brownian motion in one dimension, having either a zero drift, or a non-zero drift that is randomly distributed according to a known probability law. Following the motion in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, whether a non-zero drift is present in the observed motion. We solve this problem for a class of admissible laws in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probability of the non-zero drift being present in the motion, when the passage of time is penalised linearly.

Detecting the presence of a random drift in Brownian motion

Zucca C.
2022-01-01

Abstract

Consider a standard Brownian motion in one dimension, having either a zero drift, or a non-zero drift that is randomly distributed according to a known probability law. Following the motion in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, whether a non-zero drift is present in the observed motion. We solve this problem for a class of admissible laws in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probability of the non-zero drift being present in the motion, when the passage of time is penalised linearly.
2022
150
1068
1090
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304414921000909
Brownian motion; Free-boundary problem; Optimal stopping; Parabolic partial differential equation; Random drift; Sequential testing
Johnson P.; Pedersen J.L.; Peskir G.; Zucca C.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2318/1847650
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