The Granary in Flames. Linking Russia's war in Ukraine with food insecurity and migration in Africa

Since its beginning in February 2022, the Russian war in Ukraine has threatened to have a dramatic impact on global food insecurity. Public statements from political representatives and international organisations have also made a connection between food insecurity caused by the war and migration flows, especially from Africa to Europe. The study explores the relationship between food insecurity and international migration in general, and in Africa in the period preceding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine specifically. The study does not find strong evidence of a direct relationship between international migration and food insecurity either in the existing literature or through conducted statistical analysis based on Afrobarometer survey data. Rather, it highlights how migration flows are shaped by multiple drivers and while declining access to adequate food may lead to some people migrating, who moves and where depends on how a range of other factors interact. These findings suggest caution and nuance are necessary when referring to the potential of food insecurity to drive mass migration.