Operational Forecasting for Sustainable Coastal Tourism: Polignano a Mare

Mediterranean coastal towns concentrate tourism in summer, heightening congestion, heat stress, and environmental pressure. In Polignano a Mare, sharp peaks and many day-trips challenge services and public space. We introduce an operational framework for sustainable management that merges official tourism counts, ERA5 climate indicators (incl. heat-wave days), air-access metrics (Bari/Brindisi), Google search signals, and event/holiday dummies. A hybrid BiLSTM–Transformer delivers uncertainty-aware forecasts (WIS) and a scenario engine tests policy and shock responses (extra heat-waves, −20% flights, summer LTZ). The approach improves accuracy and decision utility, revealing how climate and connectivity jointly shape demand and offering actionable guidance for staffing, mobility, and adaptation beyond the high season.