Mathematical models for biohazards and farmer's behavior in a swine epidemic in the Cuneo area, Italy

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the spread of the Aujeszky disease, to determine possible strategies for its control. We also indirectly simulate inappropriate human interventions, which badly affect the disease spread. Field data on the blood samples collected by the veterinarians for the serologic exam of breeding animals of the Cuneo province have been used to calibrate important model parameters. Birth and mortality rates partitioned among the disease-related and the disease-independent animals have thus been determined. Starting from a well-known epidemic model for realistic situations we modified it to account for possible fluxes between susceptible, ``vaccinated" and infected animals, incorporating also the biohazards. We also simulate the farmer's behavior who does not fully comply with correct vaccination policies. The outcomes of the analysis are interpreted in the light of possible epidemics containment policies.