This work has been carried out in strict collaboration with the veterinarians studying the Aujeszky disease (A.D.), \cite{MDDFS}. This disease is caused by the Herpevirus 1 suis (ADV or SHV-1). Field data concerning the blood samples collected according to the law (D.M. April 1st, 1997) in 1997-2004 for the serologic exam for A.D. of breeding animals of the Cuneo province have been examined. For each breeding farm birth rates have been determined. Also, mortality rates have been subdivided into those connected with Aujeszky disease and those which were not. The Villafalletto and Vottignasco towns where the farms are located has a swine density exceeding 3200 units per $Km^2$ and a total number of 90000 units. These facts allow to take the area as a single giant raising farm. On the basis of these assumptions we have formulated and analyzed mathematical models for the description of the disease evolution, to determine strategies for its desirable if at all possible control, and also indirectly for simulating the human intervention, which if inappropriate may adversely affect the disease spread. In this context, the effects of biosafety measures, together with the vaccination policy according to the regulations in effect, are also considered. The ultimate goal would be the realisation of a disease eradication plan with nonprohibitive costs. We started from a well-known and accepted epidemics models for realistic situations, \cite{FCDT}, in which also the total population is not constant, \cite{GH,M-LH}, contrary to the basic assumption of the classical epidemiological model, \cite{KMcK}. We then modified these models to take into account the possible fluxes between susceptible, ``vaccinated" and infected animals, incorporating the lack of biosafety measures and possibly mimicking also the farmer's behavior who does not fully comply with correct vaccination policies. We discuss the outcomes of our analysis in terms of possible policies to contain the epidemics.
Mathematical Models of the Aujeszky disease in the Cuneo province farms, Italy.
VENTURINO, Ezio
2007-01-01
Abstract
This work has been carried out in strict collaboration with the veterinarians studying the Aujeszky disease (A.D.), \cite{MDDFS}. This disease is caused by the Herpevirus 1 suis (ADV or SHV-1). Field data concerning the blood samples collected according to the law (D.M. April 1st, 1997) in 1997-2004 for the serologic exam for A.D. of breeding animals of the Cuneo province have been examined. For each breeding farm birth rates have been determined. Also, mortality rates have been subdivided into those connected with Aujeszky disease and those which were not. The Villafalletto and Vottignasco towns where the farms are located has a swine density exceeding 3200 units per $Km^2$ and a total number of 90000 units. These facts allow to take the area as a single giant raising farm. On the basis of these assumptions we have formulated and analyzed mathematical models for the description of the disease evolution, to determine strategies for its desirable if at all possible control, and also indirectly for simulating the human intervention, which if inappropriate may adversely affect the disease spread. In this context, the effects of biosafety measures, together with the vaccination policy according to the regulations in effect, are also considered. The ultimate goal would be the realisation of a disease eradication plan with nonprohibitive costs. We started from a well-known and accepted epidemics models for realistic situations, \cite{FCDT}, in which also the total population is not constant, \cite{GH,M-LH}, contrary to the basic assumption of the classical epidemiological model, \cite{KMcK}. We then modified these models to take into account the possible fluxes between susceptible, ``vaccinated" and infected animals, incorporating the lack of biosafety measures and possibly mimicking also the farmer's behavior who does not fully comply with correct vaccination policies. We discuss the outcomes of our analysis in terms of possible policies to contain the epidemics.
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