From fertility intentions to realizations. Implementing theory of Planned Behavior with graphical models

This paper studies fertility intentions and their outcomes. We derive the theoretical model from the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), and test its validity in a low-fertility context (i.e., Italy). We move beyond existing research and use the methodology of graphical models to generate a precise picture and a formal description of the developmental fertility decision-making process, representing the possible dependencies between all of the involved variables by a chain graph. Overall, this analysis strongly supports the validity of TPB, and therefore contributes to the systematic study of fertility decision-making processes. However, our findings also produce some evidence that challenges and complicates the application of the TPB to fertility research, especially regarding the role of background factors.