Assessing the potential role of biofuels in future energy scenarios for Italy

The transport industry is currently facing significant challenges as it is transitioning toward low-emitting technologies. Uncertainty about the future evolution of the transport sector may discourage the adoption of more sustainable solutions, promoting the continued reliance on fossil-fuel based technologies. Indeed, most of the current investments are devoted to battery electric vehicles, that may represent a valuable solution in specific conditions, such as urban transportation. However, not all the sectors can be efficiently electrified as cars. In this regard, the adoption of sustainable fuels may lead to an emission reduction in both urban and extra urban areas. The deployment of synthetic fuels obtained from CO2 capture, biofuels and hydrogen may replace the traditional fossil fuels and support the transport electrification. The urgent need to address future uncertainty and identify effective solutions to reduce the transport sector impact can be supported by tools like Energy System Optimization Models. These models enable the optimization of the future evolution of energy systems under specific assumptions. This study aims at identifying potential solutions for decarbonizing the hard-to-abate transport sectors, that cannot be effectively addressed by battery technologies. Focusing on the Italian transport sector, the TEMOA-Italy model is adopted to analyze possible future scenarios involving the deployment of alternative low-emitting fuels.