Trade-offs, synergies, and pathways to sustainable coffee: evidence from Central Kenya

Global food systems are increasingly shaped by international trade, with soft commodities positioned at the core of complex interactions across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. The coffee value chain represents an emblematic case of these dynamics, particularly in the Kenyan production context, where smallholder farmers face interconnected challenges related to climate change, price volatility, and power asymmetries along the value chain. Despite growing awareness of these issues, transitions toward more sustainable coffee value chains for smallholder farmers remain limited. There is a knowledge gap regarding how existing environmental, political-cultural, and socio-economic constraints interact with one another, thereby hindering processes of change. This study aims to investigate the potentials and limits for implementing a transition toward a more sustainable smallholder coffee value chain in Central Kenya. We applied a participatory and systems-based approach, using qualitative inference methods to identify potential leverage points for sustainability transitions in the study area. Our findings indicate that current modes of information sharing, diversification of coffee agroecosystems, and the development of certification schemes can act as systemic leverage points for fostering such transitions. However, most strategies proposed by value chain stakeholders and policymakers remain narrowly focused on yield intensification. The results, therefore, highlight a potential misalignment between policy-driven intervention priorities and those emerging from participatory, bottom-up approaches. Our work suggests that, in this context, sustainability transitions should be grounded in the community-based nature of coffee producers' cooperatives and in the valorization of local knowledge.